Does “unlikely” mean “never”?

Welcome to the Chance Carnival. Every booth here runs on one idea, and the first booth is a little bit of a trick.

The Never-Wins Wheel

“Land on the GOLD slice and win the giant panda! Twenty slices, one gold. Ha! Nobody ever wins. Never ever.”

Before you spin: what is landing on gold?

Spins

Gold

Gold so far, on the chance line

neverhalfalways

Pick a bet to unlock the wheel.

The Chance Line

Every event lives somewhere on this line. Impossible sits at the very start: it never happens. Certain sits at the very end: it always does. Equally likely is exactly halfway. Everything else is unlikely (less than half) or likely (more than half).

Tap a card, then tap where it goes on the line.

0½1

Pick a card.

Spinners Made to Order

“My booths need new spinners, eight slices each. Pick a paint, tap the slices, then send it to me. Test it first if you like!”

Paint the spinner to match the order.

Unlikely isn't never.
Spin enough, and it shows up about as often as its slice says.